Social work practice requires social workers to make high-stakes decisions in situations marked by uncertainty, ambiguity and change. Yet policy responses often seek greater predictability and control. This seminar explores the consequences of this potential mismatch between policy expectations and practice realities and considers how public policy might recognise and support the difficult work of making decisions when there are no easy answers.

Drawing on research on risk, decision making, complexity and organisational learning, the presentation explores how understandings of risk have evolved and considers the limitations of approaches that prioritise prediction and control. It then examines what public policy can learn from ‘high reliability organisations’ about supporting safe and effective practice in uncertain environments. The session concludes by considering how policy and organisations can support professional judgement, learning and resilience in child welfare systems.

Learning Outcomes

1. Analyse how uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity shape decision making in child welfare practice and the implications for policy and organisational responses.
2. Evaluate contemporary approaches to risk management in child welfare, including the strengths and limitations of strategies that prioritise prediction and control.
3. Evaluate how insights from complexity theory and high reliability organisations can inform policies and organisational arrangements that support professional judgement, learning, resilience and accountability in child welfare systems.

Biography

Dr Louise Caffrey is an Assistant Professor in Social Policy in Trinity College Dublin. Her research explores how social workers make decisions in complex and uncertain situations, and how policy and organisational environments shape practice. She has published widely in the areas of child protection and is particularly interested in how public systems can better support effective practice and improve outcomes for children and families. Louise is co-author with Prof. Eileen Munro of the forthcoming 4^th edition of the book ‘Effective Child Protection’, which will be published in January 2027.